Buffalo’s Josh Allen struggles in the cold


It’s the most common and mundane topic for small talk, but the weather could play a big role in the first three games on this weekend’s wildcard list, so let’s discuss its potential impact.

All BetMGM Lines.

Lineage: Bengals -5.5, including 48.5

Weather Forecast: 31°F with 10 mph winds and 0% chance of precipitation

By Paul Dehner Jr., Raiders QB Derek Carr is 0-5 in games where the temperature was 37 degrees or lower at kickoff. Like George Costanza in a swimming pool, Carr’s EPA experiences significant shrinkage when it’s cold. His career expected added points per game is -0.12 when it’s 40 degrees or less and -0.07 when it’s between 41 and 50 degrees. Carr has a positive EPA at all other temperatures. Bengals QB Joe Burrow, meanwhile, is at his best when the weather is cold. Baby Aaron’s EPA is +0.33 at temperatures between 41 and 50 degrees and +0.54 when it’s 40 degrees or below. This game sets up well for a Cincinnati team that beat the Raiders 32-13 in Vegas a few months ago.

Line: Invoices -4.5, of which 43.5

Weather forecast: 8°F with winds of 11 km/h and 4% chance of snow

QB invoices Josh Allen is 3-2 in games with freezing temperatures, and his stats are even less impressive. He completed 50.3% of his passes, averaged 166.6 passing yards per game, and threw six touchdowns for seven interceptions in those five games. The culprit, according to Allen, is poor foot circulation. Former Pro Bowl linebacker Bart Scott was eager to offer some advice this week on how to overcome this problem. His solution? “Take some Viagra.” Things weren’t as tough in the cold weather for Patriots QB Mac Jones. Even though he was born and raised in the Sunshine State and played college ball in Alabama, Jones posts his highest NFL EPA when fans are huddled together. The rookie boasts an EPA of +0.59 at temperatures between 41 and 50 degrees and +0.15 when it’s 40 degrees or below. It might be worth taking the points with Bill Belichick against a stiff Allen.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Bucs -8.5, including 45.5

Weather forecast: 20°C with winds of 38 km/h and 11% chance of precipitation

With an 84% chance of rain earlier today and 23mph winds, this one could prove to be a slopfest for the benefit of the underdog eagles. Philadelphia leads the league in rushing, averaging 159.7 yards per game rushing, and will host the return of RB Miles Sanders, whose 5.5 yards per carry ranks fourth among running backs. The Bucs finished the year as the third-best rushing defense, but ranked 11th in the final three games of the season, giving up 109 rushing yards per outing. Linebacker Lavonte David is a game-time decision with a foot injury and would be a blow to the Tampa defense if he is unable to get dressed. Betting against Tom Brady can often be a depressing experience, but he’s losing two of his best receivers and will likely face some strong winds on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles were able to keep this one close.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 3-2 in games where the temperature is 32 degrees or lower. (Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports)

Statistics provided by teamrankings.com, nflfastr.com and NBC Sports.


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